What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 81%, implying a 81% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 17, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Science and Technology

Before August 17th

Closes Aug 17, 2026 (60d) 24h volume 25 Open interest 3.8K Event SpaceX Starship 13th launch?

81%

implied YES probability

+2.0pp 24h

Last 21 days · High 82% · Low 72% · 7d +7.9pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.