What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 22%, implying a 22% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 17, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Science and Technology

Before July 17th

Closes Jul 17, 2026 (29d) 24h volume 872 Open interest 7.7K Event SpaceX Starship 13th launch?

22%

implied YES probability

+2.0pp 24h

Last 22 days · High 32% · Low 17% · 7d +26.3pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.