What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 16%, implying a 16% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Before Jan 1, 2027

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (198d) 24h volume 70 Open interest 10.6K Event Will Trump embargo a new country?

16%

implied YES probability

+5.0pp 24h

Last 41 days · High 34% · Low 3% · 7d +5.3pp · 30d -23.1pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.