What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 22%, implying a 22% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2028. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Before Jan 1, 2028

Closes Jan 01, 2028 (563d) 24h volume 20 Open interest 12.5K Event Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?

22%

implied YES probability

+1.0pp 24h

Last 68 days · High 60% · Low 12% · 7d -15.4pp · 30d -38.9pp

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.