What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 3%, implying a 3% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Below 10%

Closes Jul 01, 2026 (13d) 24h volume 24 Open interest 9.0K Event What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?

3%

implied YES probability

Last 44 days · High 47% · Low 1% · 7d -41.0pp · 30d -15.7pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.