What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 14%, implying a 14% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Sam Bankman-Fried

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (198d) 24h volume 75 Open interest 16.9K Event Who will Trump pardon in 2026?

14%

implied YES probability

+2.0pp 24h

Last 35 days · High 17% · Low 6% · 7d -20.0pp · 30d +48.1pp

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.