What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 36%, implying a 36% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 21, 2029. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Sam Bankman-Fried

Closes Jan 21, 2029 (949d) 24h volume 76 Open interest 3.8K Event Who will Trump pardon?

36%

implied YES probability

+2.0pp 24h

Last 25 days · High 38% · Low 22% · 7d +18.8pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.