What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 64%, implying a 64% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 21, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Companies

Above 420000

Closes Aug 21, 2026 (65d) 24h volume 26 Open interest 30.0K Event Tesla production in Q2

64%

implied YES probability

-1.0pp 24h

Last 59 days · High 71% · Low 46% · 7d -1.6pp · 30d +21.6pp

TSLA Tesla, Inc. Common Stock

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.