What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 20%, implying a 20% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 21, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Companies

Above 460000

Closes Aug 21, 2026 (65d) 24h volume 53 Open interest 15.2K Event Tesla production in Q2

20%

implied YES probability

Last 45 days · High 39% · Low 5% · 7d +54.5pp · 30d -26.1pp

TSLA Tesla, Inc. Common Stock

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.