What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 38%, implying a 38% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 31, 2029. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Reform party

Closes Aug 31, 2029 (1171d) 24h volume 17 Open interest 15.7K Event Which party will win the next UK general election?

38%

implied YES probability

+1.0pp 24h

Last 71 days · High 49% · Low 35% · 7d -2.6pp · 30d -7.3pp

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.