What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 34%, implying a 34% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 16, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Economics

Above 0.6%

Closes Jul 16, 2026 (6d) 24h volume 10 Open interest 764 Event US retail sales in June

34%

implied YES probability

Last 6 days · High 34% · Low 29%

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.