What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 38%, implying a 38% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 30, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Economics

Above 4.55%

Closes Jun 30, 2026 (13d) 24h volume 104 Open interest 827 Event 10Y US Treasury Yield at month-end?

38%

implied YES probability

-2.0pp 24h

Last 8 days · High 51% · Low 40% · 7d +9.5pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.