What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 35%, implying a 35% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Financials

4.25% or above

Closes Jul 31, 2026 (21d) 24h volume 75 Open interest 172 Event 2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

35%

implied YES probability

-4.0pp 24h

Last 2 days · High 37% · Low 36%

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.