What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 36%, implying a 36% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Sports

1: USA / 2: Australia / 3: Turkiye / 4: Paraguay

Closes Jul 12, 2026 (25d) 24h volume 1.7K Open interest 17.5K Event Group D: Exact Order

36%

implied YES probability

-7.0pp 24h

Last 8 days · High 53% · Low 5% · 7d +288.9pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.