polymarket
Politics
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?
July 4
0%
implied YES probability
Price history
Last 14 days ·
High 44% ·
Low 0%
· 7d -97.3pp
How this market resolves
A "full lid" at the White House is an official announcement indicating that the President's public activities for the day have concluded and no further public events, appearances, or news are expected.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the White House Press Office calls a full lid by 6:30 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only a full lid will qualify; lunch lids, intermissions, or any other press lid not explicitly listed as a full lid will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution.
This market will resolve according to the time listed by Roll Call of the first full lid called in the daily calendar (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). If Roll Call does not list a lid time or is for any reason unavailable, this market will resolve according to Forth (https://www.forth.news/whpool).
Other outcomes in this event
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AI analysis
The prediction market is currently indicating a 0% probability that the White House will call a full lid by 6:30 PM on July 4. This assessment is based on known facts about the President's public schedule and activities leading up to this date. The current price reflects the market's collective opinion that there are no indications or expectations of a full lid being called during this timeframe. Any changes in the President's public schedule, announcements from the White House Press Office, or unforeseen events could potentially impact the price of this market, causing it to rise if a full lid is expected and fall if one is not anticipated.
Generated Jul 08, 2026
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