polymarket
World
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
10%
implied YES probability
-3.5pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 26% ·
Low 8%
· 7d -5.0pp
· 30d -32.1pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.