What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 23, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Heather Luper be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?

Heather Luper

Closes Jun 23, 2026 (5d) 24h volume $180 Open interest $7.7K Event MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner

implied YES probability

+3.9pp 24h

Price history

Last 42 days · High 4% · Low 0% · 7d +2466.7pp · 30d +1440.0pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.