What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 3%, implying a 3% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 16, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Nathan Butterfield be the Republican nominee for OK-01?

Nathan Butterfield

Closes Jun 16, 2026 (0d) 24h volume $1.5K Open interest $32.0K Event OK-01 Republican Primary Winner

implied YES probability

+2.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 57 days · High 48% · Low 0% · 7d +5200.0pp · 30d +5200.0pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.