polymarket
Politics
US military draft authorized in 2026?
10%
implied YES probability
Price history
Last 90 days ·
High 13% ·
Low 6%
· 7d +25.0pp
· 30d +17.6pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent news mentioning this market
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US Draft Deal Includes Financial Incentives for Iran | Balance of Power: Late Edition 06/16/2026
Bloomberg Politics · 4h ago
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.