polymarket
World
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
46%
implied YES probability
-6.1pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 70% ·
Low 35%
· 7d -16.8pp
· 30d +1.1pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
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