What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 30%, implying a 30% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

P PolymarketPolitics & Elections

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (73d) All outcomes: Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

chance of YES30% +5.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

16–28%

30d +4 pts · 7d +29 pts

24h volume

$12.7K

USDC traded

Open interest

$235.4K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

How it settles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.