What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 8%, implying a 8% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (174d) 24h volume $105 Open interest $41.8K Event Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

implied YES probability

+1.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 91 days · High 28% · Low 4% · 7d 0.0pp · 30d -23.8pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.