polymarket
Technology
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Meta
8%
implied YES probability
-0.5pp 24h
Price history
Last 71 days ·
High 25% ·
Low 8%
· 7d -33.3pp
· 30d -37.9pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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Meta Stock Climbs As New AI Model, Enterprise Push Help Reverse Early Losses
IBD · 4h ago
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Meta Stock Climbs As New AI Model, Enterprise Push Help Reverse Early Losses
IBD · 4h ago
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Meta introduces new Muse Spark 1.1 AI model as Zuckerberg ratchets up competition
Seeking Alpha · 4h ago
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Meta business model in trouble from $1.4 trillion lawsuit
TheStreet · 7h ago
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