polymarket
Politics
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz
9%
implied YES probability
-4.8pp 24h
Price history
Last 28 days ·
High 30% ·
Low 3%
· 7d +182.7pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.
- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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Can Trump Really Reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Friday?
Bloomberg Politics · 16h ago
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Three Iranian tankers exit U.S. blockade for first time in months as shipowners eye Hormuz in 'wary disbelief'
CNBC Top News · 1h ago
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Shipping exec says industry needs assurances Strait of Hormuz will be safe
NPR Business · 8h ago
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Oil prices fall 5% to 3-month low on hopes Strait of Hormuz will open
Investing.com · 13h ago
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Oil prices fall 5% to 3-month low on hopes Strait of Hormuz will open
Yahoo Finance · 13h ago
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