polymarket Science

Will more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

>16
Closes Dec 31, 2026 (196d) 24h volume $153 Open interest $10.7K Event How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
3%
implied YES probability
-2.1pp 24h

Price history

Last 91 days · High 12% · Low 2% · 7d -18.6pp · 30d -15.7pp
12%2%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

<5
40% YES
24h vol $896
5-6
28% YES
24h vol $182
7-8
9% YES
24h vol $441
9-10
5% YES
24h vol $261
11-12
4% YES
24h vol $276
13-14
3% YES
24h vol $145
15-16
1% YES
24h vol $236

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.