polymarket
Technology
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
xAI
1%
implied YES probability
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 17% ·
Low 1%
· 7d -29.0pp
· 30d -78.0pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Other outcomes in this event
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