What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 1%, implying a 1% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2025. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?

June 30, 2026

Closes Dec 31, 2025 (0d) 24h volume $43 Open interest $27.2K Event Will Israel annex any territory by...?

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 90 days · High 24% · Low 2% · 7d -25.0pp · 30d -58.2pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.