polymarket
World
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?
June 30
20%
implied YES probability
-11.0pp 24h
Price history
Last 9 days ·
High 56% ·
Low 32%
· 7d -23.8pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.