What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 3%, implying a 3% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 30, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Lebanon

Closes Jun 30, 2026 (12d) 24h volume $519 Open interest $51.8K Event Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 91 days · High 23% · Low 1% · 7d -27.1pp · 30d -36.2pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.