polymarket Politics

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

June 15
Closes Jul 31, 2026 (44d) 24h volume $5.9M Open interest $6.8M Event US and Iran sign an agreement by...?
100%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 6 days · High 100% · Low 4%
100%4%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

June 30
100% YES
24h vol —
June 22
100% YES
24h vol —
July 31
100% YES
24h vol —

Recent news mentioning this market

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently indicating a 100% probability that the US and Iran will sign an agreement by June 15, 2026. This assessment is based on known facts such as ongoing diplomatic efforts between the two nations and previous agreements reached in principle. The current price would be influenced by any significant developments or changes in the political landscape that could impact the likelihood of a signed agreement. A decrease in tensions between the US and Iran, for example, could drive the price up, while increased hostility or disagreements over key issues could cause it to fall.
Generated Jun 17, 2026

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.