What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 72%, implying a 72% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 23, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?

Dan Cox

Closes Jun 23, 2026 (5d) 24h volume $7.6K Open interest $10.2K Event Maryland Governor Republican Primary Winner

72%

implied YES probability

-11.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 91 days · High 79% · Low 49% · 7d +6.7pp · 30d +25.2pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Maryland, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Maryland Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Maryland Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.