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Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

June 30
Closes Jun 30, 2026 (12d) 24h volume $6.5K Open interest $122.1K Event Israel military action against Yemen by...?
6%
implied YES probability
-4.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 91 days · High 92% · Low 6% · 7d -76.5pp · 30d -78.2pp
92%6%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Other outcomes in this event

March 31
0% YES
24h vol —
May 31
0% YES
24h vol —
April 30
0% YES
24h vol —
April 15
0% YES
24h vol —

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.