What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 64%, implying a 64% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 23, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?

Micah Lasher

Closes Jun 23, 2026 (5d) 24h volume $607 Open interest $8.9K Event NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

64%

implied YES probability

+2.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 91 days · High 64% · Low 30% · 7d +29.0pp · 30d +44.9pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.