What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 20%, implying a 20% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

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Will Paddy Pimblett win by KO or TKO?

Pimblett to win by KO/TKO?

Closes Jul 12, 2026 (2d) 24h volume $191 Open interest $80.2K Event UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)

20%

implied YES probability

-0.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 13 days · High 56% · Low 20% · 7d -58.6pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Paddy Pimblett" if Paddy Pimblett is officially declared the winner of the fight against Benoît Saint Denis at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Benoît Saint Denis" if Benoît Saint Denis is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.