What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 8%, implying a 8% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Technology

Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

1600

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (174d) 24h volume $121 Open interest $12.7K Event Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?

implied YES probability

+3.6pp 24h

Price history

Last 33 days · High 40% · Low 8% · 7d -26.8pp · 30d -65.7pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Other outcomes in this event

Related stocks

AREN The Arena Group Holdings, Inc.

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.