polymarket Economics

Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?

>2.5%
Closes Jan 29, 2027 (203d) 24h volume $16 Open interest $4.9K Event GDP growth in 2026
23%
implied YES probability
-6.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 91 days · High 76% · Low 28% · 7d -57.6pp · 30d -34.9pp
76%28%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Other outcomes in this event

2.0–2.5%
32% YES
24h vol $16
1.5–2.0%
24% YES
24h vol $191
1.0–1.5%
17% YES
24h vol $29
<0.5%
7% YES
24h vol $29
0.5–1.0%
5% YES
24h vol $27

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.