What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 6%, implying a 6% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 30, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

Closes Jun 30, 2026 (12d) 24h volume $929 Open interest $59.5K Event Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

implied YES probability

+2.1pp 24h

Price history

Last 91 days · High 51% · Low 4% · 7d -11.5pp · 30d -77.0pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.