polymarket Politics

Trump out as President before 2027?

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (128d) 24h volume $148.1K Open interest $3.4M Event Trump out as President before 2027?
6%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 91 days · High 12% · Low 6% · 7d +18.2pp · 30d -13.3pp
12%6%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Recent news mentioning this market

AI analysis

The prediction market for Trump out as President before 2027 indicates an 8% probability that Donald Trump will resign or be removed from office by December 31, 2026. The current price reflects a low likelihood of this event occurring, which is informed by the fact that Trump has not publicly indicated any intention to step down and there are no known imminent circumstances that would lead to his removal. Any announcement of Trump's resignation or removal before the market's end date would immediately resolve the market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Permanent removal from office is required for the market to resolve in favor of "Yes".
Generated Jul 27, 2026

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.