What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket World

Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (196d) 24h volume $119 Open interest $8.2K Event Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 90 days · High 6% · Low 2% · 7d -10.8pp · 30d 0.0pp

How this market resolves

If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.

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NATO Themes Transatlantic Defense ETF

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.