What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 1%, implying a 1% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2025. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket World

Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?

June 30, 2026

Closes Dec 31, 2025 (0d) 24h volume $1.2K Open interest $396.9K Event Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 91 days · High 6% · Low 1% · 7d -38.9pp · 30d -64.5pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Other outcomes in this event

Related stocks

NATO Themes Transatlantic Defense ETF

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.