polymarket Economics

Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?

4.9-5.2%
Closes Jul 16, 2026 (28d) 24h volume $857 Open interest $10.0K Event China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?
6%
implied YES probability
-1.6pp 24h

Price history

Last 59 days · High 52% · Low 6% · 7d -44.3pp · 30d -80.8pp
52%6%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html

Other outcomes in this event

4.6-4.9%
67% YES
24h vol $1.6K
4.3-4.6%
18% YES
24h vol $51
4.0-4.3%
2% YES
24h vol $38
5.8-6.1%
1% YES
24h vol $861

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.