What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 8%, implying a 8% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?

Closes Jul 31, 2026 (43d) 24h volume $682 Open interest $22.6K Event Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 48 days · High 24% · Low 7% · 7d +11.8pp · 30d -26.9pp

How this market resolves

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will not run for reelection to the Israeli Knesset in this election by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only definitive announcements will count. Suggestions, statements of consideration, or other non-definitive statements will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.