What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 6%, implying a 6% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (196d) 24h volume $281 Open interest $5.0K Event Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 46 days · High 10% · Low 2% · 7d -31.2pp · 30d +58.0pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.