polymarket World

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

June 30
Closes Jun 30, 2026 (12d) 24h volume $305.4K Open interest $763.6K Event Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
3%
implied YES probability
-3.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 61 days · High 19% · Low 4% · 7d +33.3pp · 30d -14.3pp
19%4%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

July 31
12% YES
24h vol $100.8K
May 31
0% YES
24h vol —
April 30
0% YES
24h vol —

Recent news mentioning this market

Trade on Polymarket

Open on Polymarket
Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.