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Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?

June 30, 2026
Closes Dec 31, 2026 (197d) 24h volume $1.7K Open interest $113.5K Event Will any country leave NATO by...?
0%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 90 days · High 8% · Low 1% · 7d -17.6pp · 30d -17.6pp
8%1%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

December 31, 2026
5% YES
24h vol $1.6K
December 31, 2025
0% YES
24h vol —

Recent news mentioning this market

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NATO Themes Transatlantic Defense ETF

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.