What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 11%, implying a 11% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2028. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

Roberto Vannacci

Closes Dec 31, 2028 (927d) 24h volume $94 Open interest $7.8K Event Next Prime Minister of Italy?

11%

implied YES probability

+1.2pp 24h

Price history

Last 51 days · High 20% · Low 4% · 7d -7.2pp · 30d +17.0pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.