What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 94%, implying a 94% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 06, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?

Justin Pearson

Closes Aug 06, 2026 (25d) 24h volume $105 Open interest $3.4K Event TN-09 Democratic Primary Winner

94%

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 31 days · High 95% · Low 52% · 7d +4.4pp · 30d +16.6pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 6, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Other outcomes in this event

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PSO Pearson plc

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.