What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 1%, implying a 1% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Technology

Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Tesla

Closes Jul 31, 2026 (22d) 24h volume $2.2K Open interest $34.0K Event 2nd Largest Company end of July?

implied YES probability

+0.6pp 24h

Price history

Last 16 days · High 26% · Low 0% · 7d +200.0pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Other outcomes in this event

Related stocks

TSLA Tesla, Inc. Common Stock

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.