What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 8%, implying a 8% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (174d) 24h volume $776 Open interest $187.4K Event Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 91 days · High 16% · Low 8% · 7d +5.9pp · 30d -14.3pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.