polymarket
Politics
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
24%
implied YES probability
-0.5pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 26% ·
Low 16%
· 7d +23.1pp
· 30d +6.7pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
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